If the VIX is going up, then
the out-of-the-money options in the calculation are rising from trader’s
accumulation (demand); likewise, the VIX drops from trader’s distribution
(supply).
If the market is moving
lower, but traders are not bidding up the out-of-the-money options (VIX doesn’t
rise), then traders are already hedged, or are less leveraged, and the extent
of a sell-off is not perceived as intimidating to them.
Use the VIX to complement
your trading strategies rather than to predict market direction. Compare the change to the past few weeks to
gauge the overall fear or complacency in the market. If the VIX is rising above the past trend,
then uncertainty is increasing in the market over what may happen in the near
term future; likewise, if the VIX is falling below the past trend, then
complacency is increasing and option premiums are relatively low.