Unless indicated, otherwise, my chart analysis data will be supported by Thomas N.Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd edition. The main database consists of 500 stocks, each with a duration of 5 years beginning from mid-1991; 500,000 data points (500 stocks x 200 trade days per year x 5 years)! The data base captured the 1992-1996 Presidential Cycle perfectly for use in today's 2008-2012 Cycle. I even like the idea it didn't include the tech bubble. His sampling is from a large population and should be highly accurate; Bulkowski's only bias was stocks below $1.00 were removed assuming bankruptcy.
The
following Chart Patterns yield the best returns, the the lowest risk for
failure, and least
amount of days to the price target in both a Bull and Bear Market:
2.
Pennants average 25% rise in a Bull Market, 21% rise in a Bear Market, 2%
failure rate in a Bull
Market and 2% failure rate in Bear Markets, 22 days to high in a Bull Market, and 18 days to the
high in a Bear Market.
3.
Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottoms average 38% rise in a Bull Market, 31% rise in a Bear Market, 2% failure rate
in a Bull Market and 1% failure rate in Bear Markets, 186 days to high in a Bull
Market, and 109 days to the high in a Bear Market.
4.
Ascending and Inverted Scallops average 43% rise in a Bull Market, 26% rise in
a Bear Market, 4%
failure rate in a Bull Market and 7% failure rate in Bear Markets, 137 days to high in a Bull
Market, and 104 days to the high in a Bear Market.
5. Head
& Shoulders Bottoms average 38% rise in a Bull Market, 30% rise in a Bear Market, 3% failure rate in a
Bull Market and 4% failure rate in Bear Markets, 176 days to high in a Bull Market, and
107 days to the high in a Bear Market.
6. Cup
with and without Handle average 34% rise in a Bull Market, 23% rise in a Bear Market, 5% failure rate in a
Bull Market and 7% failure rate in Bear Markets, 167 days to high in a Bull Market, and
63 days to the high in a Bear Market.
7. The
worst case scenario for All Double Bottoms (Adam & Adam, Adam and Eve, Eve & Adam, and Eve &
Eve) average 35% rise in a Bull Market, 23% rise in a Bear Market, 5% failure rate in a Bull
Market and 8% failure rate in Bear Markets, 170 days to high in a Bull Market, and 105 days
to the high in a Bear Market.
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