Saturday, October 20, 2012

PRICE TARGETS FOR SPECULATION


Unless indicated, otherwise, my chart analysis data will be supported by Thomas N.Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns 2nd edition. The main database consists of 500 stocks, each with a duration of 5 years beginning from mid-1991; 500,000 data points (500 stocks x 200 trade days per year x 5 years)! The data base captured the 1992-1996 Presidential Cycle perfectly for use in today's 2008-2012 Cycle. I even like the idea it didn't include the tech bubble. His sampling is from a large population and should be highly accurate; Bulkowski's only bias was stocks below $1.00 were removed assuming bankruptcy.

The following Chart Patterns yield the best returns, the the lowest risk for failure, and least amount of days to the price target in both a Bull and Bear Market:

 1. High and Tight Flags average 69% rise in a Bull Market, 42% rise in a Bear Market, 0% failure rate in both Bull and Bear Markets, 39 days to high in a Bull Market, and 25 days to the high in a Bear Market.

2. Pennants average 25% rise in a Bull Market, 21% rise in a Bear Market, 2% failure rate in a Bull Market and 2% failure rate in Bear Markets, 22 days to high in a Bull Market, and 18 days to the high in a Bear Market.

3. Bump-and-Run Reversal Bottoms average 38% rise in a Bull Market, 31% rise in a Bear Market, 2% failure rate in a Bull Market and 1% failure rate in Bear Markets, 186 days to high in a Bull Market, and 109 days to the high in a Bear Market.

4. Ascending and Inverted Scallops average 43% rise in a Bull Market, 26% rise in a Bear Market, 4% failure rate in a Bull Market and 7% failure rate in Bear Markets, 137 days to high in a Bull Market, and 104 days to the high in a Bear Market.

5. Head & Shoulders Bottoms average 38% rise in a Bull Market, 30% rise in a Bear Market, 3% failure rate in a Bull Market and 4% failure rate in Bear Markets, 176 days to high in a Bull Market, and 107 days to the high in a Bear Market.

6. Cup with and without Handle average 34% rise in a Bull Market, 23% rise in a Bear Market, 5% failure rate in a Bull Market and 7% failure rate in Bear Markets, 167 days to high in a Bull Market, and 63 days to the high in a Bear Market.

7. The worst case scenario for All Double Bottoms (Adam & Adam, Adam and Eve, Eve & Adam, and Eve & Eve) average 35% rise in a Bull Market, 23% rise in a Bear Market, 5% failure rate in a Bull Market and 8% failure rate in Bear Markets, 170 days to high in a Bull Market, and 105 days to the high in a Bear Market.

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